Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
