Daily Killings in Mexico Decline 37% Under Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Government Data
The average count of everyday killings each month in the country has fallen by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by recent official figures. However, security analysts have cautioned that murder data may not signal enhanced national stability.
Significant Decline in Per-Day Averages
There was an mean of nearly 55 homicides a day in last November as opposed to roughly 87 when the President took the presidency in the previous September. This announcement was delivered by the director of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on Tuesday.
“The outcome in murders that we have seen in these months is extremely notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that in November the smallest number of homicides were registered for any November in the past decade.
Historical Background and Government Plan
Violent cartel internal conflicts, combined with the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to combat the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in recent times. The rate peaked at a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics agency.
That meant Mexico a murder rate more than four times greater than that of the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has linked her public safety strategy for an seemingly more pronounced drop in homicides in the current year.
At a press conference in August, the Mexican leader said: “We have a plan, we have tracking of the plan, and we have specific tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The plan functions. And we have to keep working at it daily.”
The main pillars of Sheinbaum’s security strategy involve:
- Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
- Advancing information gathering and investigation efforts.
- Greater cooperation between government departments.
Analyst Warnings and Data Concerns
But, public safety researchers urged caution that focusing solely on murder numbers to draw a conclusion of improved security was problematic. This is notably true in light of the rise in other crimes such as people going missing.
“It would be very good news if this was a drop, but I think we must not just look at the homicide data and think: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively positive.”
Per the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the identical period the previous year. Yet, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain states have surged by up to 200%.
“Data on murders is no longer reliable for estimating the context of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who lack the ability or the desire to accurately recognize and categorize bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to mask violent acts through abductions.”
Vargas noted that using monthly means of everyday killings was additionally concerning because it could obscure periods when there were particularly high numbers of murders.
“Using the per-day average makes surges of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.
Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success
An area where the administration can highlight the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 individuals were apprehended between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, per government data. More than 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.
“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.
Ongoing Unrest and Societal Frustration
But notwithstanding these measures, Mexico remains plagued by extreme violence, with several regions in the midst of cartel-driven bloodshed. In the previous month there was a high-profile assassination of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the past year.
A short time after, thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the nation to express their anger at graft and cartel violence.
“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to create a picture of safety. Politically it’s extremely successful, socially it’s extremely debatable,” the analyst said.