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Rachel Reeves has approached this week's spending review similar to a unwilling swimmer creeping into freezing water, striving to ease the unpleasantness through gradual entry.

Initial Moves and Revenue Pledges

Reeves began addressing the issue of limited income towards the close of the summer months. At first, she refused to stand by earlier insistence that increases in taxation in the previous year's financial statement would be the ultimate ones.

Subsequently, earlier this month, she took a more significant step into the cold sea. Her remarks committed to "do what is necessary" to finance state services and keep debt expenses low.

Manifesto Promise and Government Withdrawal

After 10 days, the Treasury had withdrawn the implication. The manifesto commitment remained intact after all. As any freezing-water bather realizes, this cancelled plunge and shivering retreat is the most painful of all approaches. Nothing prolongs the pain like indecision.

It's hard to be firm when choosing between types of internally generated injury.

Expectation as Approach

Hope has not been a successful strategy for the administration. At the core of Keir Starmer's election bid was the futile belief of somehow satisfying citizens' demand for better public services without undoing significant amounts of Conservative tax cuts.

Communication Deficiency

At no point has either Starmer or the chancellor successfully conveyed a impression of shared mission to justify all this difficulty. Partly that is a issue of personality appeal. Both leaders are uncannily comparable in their ineffective messaging, stilted and reticent in a way that pushes listeners away instead of drawing them towards them.

Brexit Agreement and Economic Situation

Just as political pressure to invest in government services has pushed the exchequer to admit that revenue must go up, the financial necessity of boosting economic expansion makes it ever harder to ignore the expense of separation from the European single market.

European Relationship and Talks

Ministers used a period splashing in the shallow end of realignment with the European Union: plans to end border inspections on agricultural goods; a youth mobility scheme. Aspiration went a bit deeper on power generation, defence and security cooperation, but no significant agreements has to date been signed.

Diplomatic Situation and International Standing

Lacking clear direction and drive from Downing Street, negotiations are bogged down. Brussels authorities says trading benefits are unlocked with contributions to the European funds. UK ministers understand that's the agreement. That doesn't lead them enthusiastic for a public row and Nigel Farage shouting betrayal over whatever price ends up being settled.

Financial Impact and Political Language

Financial circumstances has triggered some shift in the administration's tone on the EU relationship. She has begun citing Brexit alongside the coronavirus crisis as a cause of economic damage that the Treasury is striving to fix. Cabinet members have done the same, although they cautiously attribute the fault to "unfavorable agreement" or "the manner of departure", never just "Brexit".

International Situation and Long-term Possibilities

The challenge of the nation's long-term partnership with the EU can't be simplified to administrative modifications and customs systems when the entire international system is in significant transformation. Given everything that has occurred since the referendum year, it feels appropriate still to be posing the core matter: were Britain's interests served by exiting the EU?

Summary

These constitute harsh, difficult truths about the UK's position in uncertain world affairs. It is understandable that the prime minister and the chancellor shy away from the challenge. It would take them beyond their capabilities, into forces that they will not swim against. So instead they carry on apprehensively moving along the coastline, hoping that perhaps shortly the circumstances will shift.